The crypto marketplace slid into the week successful a holding pattern, with terms enactment grinding sideways and positioning progressively tethered to 1 catalyst: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks astatine the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. “The lone big, large lawsuit is going to beryllium this,” said expert Josh Olszewicz successful his August 18 Macro Monday stream. “Everybody’s going to beryllium watching this, talking astir this, analyzing this… What Jay says [on Friday]” volition apt plaything complaint expectations and hazard sentiment. The symposium runs August 21–23, 2025 successful Wyoming, nether the taxable “Labor Markets successful Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” a backdrop astir tailor-made for clarifying the Fed’s way into autumn.
Will JPow Jolt The Crypto Market?
Olszewicz framed the setup arsenic seasonally and structurally tricky for crypto. Commitment of Traders (COT) positioning connected CME shows commercials—the cohort helium views arsenic “normally close for immoderate marketplace historically”—not convincingly long, portion ground trades stay charismatic and unfastened involvement has crept higher crossed CME futures and options, including connected Solana. That mix, helium argued, limits upside follow-through successful the lack of a macro spark. “It’s going to beryllium harder to propulsion higher based connected what we’ve seen historically and based connected this futures positioning data,” helium said, adding that “when commercials are long, terms tends to bash better.”
Flows underscore the crosscurrent. He tallied “almost a $4 billion” nett week for crypto ETPs globally—most of it successful the US—with Ethereum notching “an all-time high play flow,” portion Bitcoin’s intake looked “modest” by examination and Solana and XRP showed a pickup. Yet helium cautioned that adjacent steadfast money flows bash not erase tactically dense positioning and the deficiency of a wide macro impulse up of Powell.
MicroStrategy’s equity argumentation change, which allows at-the-market issuance beneath a 2.5× mNAV premium, has besides go a talking constituent successful the pre-Jackson Hole chop. Olszewicz noted that MSTR’s BTC accumulation “has slowed down rather a bit,” and that the share’s mNAV premium is being actively arbitraged by traders “short MSTR, agelong spot [BTC],” further muting momentum erstwhile the underlying coin is directionless. In his view, “when the underlying is momentumless, there’s nary crushed to question leverage,” which helps explicate wherefore MSTR “is going to person a harder clip doing well” until either BTC trends oregon firm accumulation re-accelerates.
Technically, helium described the near-term arsenic “a giant, elephantine thing burger.” For Bitcoin, helium pointed to a $120,000–$122,000 portion arsenic the threshold for a cleaner agelong setup, and for MicroStrategy helium flagged “anything supra $410, and it’s spell time,” portion conceding that the stock’s momentum is “slipping distant quicker and quicker.” Across crypto equities, helium saw small that was “screaming” long: exchanges and brokerages looked momentumless connected his unreality models; miners’ caller spot owed much to AI/HPC stories than to crypto beta; and adjacent the salient ETH-linked equities that surged since outpouring present amusement “record volumes” but a “more neutral” low-timeframe picture. “There’s nary crushed to unit trades erstwhile they’re not there,” helium said.
How Will Financial Markets React?
The macro guardrails he’ll ticker into Powell’s code are acquainted to crypto traders. On the US dollar index, helium wants continued “chop neutral” and firmly beneath the regular cloud—“you don’t privation this supra 99, 100”—because a resurgent DXY “would beryllium precise cautious with longs connected BTC.” On rates, the 10-year Treasury “durably beneath 4.25” would beryllium a tailwind, portion “above 5% everybody’s successful trouble.” He besides flagged plumbing dynamics: the drawdown of reverse repos toward zero and the concurrent refill of the Treasury General Account—flows that could nett out, but that, astatine the extremes, mightiness nudge the Fed toward a argumentation effect if liquidity strains emerged.
All roads, however, pb backmost to Powell. As of Tuesday, broader markets were leaning toward a September complaint cut, with futures-implied tools similar CME’s FedWatch reflecting a precocious probability of a 25 bps move. “We’re seeing 83% for a chopped astatine the adjacent meeting,” Olszewicz said of the market’s starting point, adding that if expectations “shift towards nary cut, I’d expect the markets to beryllium precise angry,” whereas a astonishment 50 bps “is astir apt unlikely” but would beryllium greeted “in a bullish, blessed way.”
For now, Olszewicz is contented to wait. “I would emotion to conscionable hold to spot what this looks similar successful October. I’m not expecting thing successful September,” helium said, accordant with his presumption that crypto’s Q3 seasonality is simply a headwind and that meaningful inclination signals often re-emerge successful Q4.
Between present and then, the Chair’s code connected ostentation progress, labor-market cooling, and the anticipation of pre-emptive easing volition find whether this week’s “nothing burger” becomes the basal for a caller limb higher—or a reminder that macro inactive has the last accidental astatine the apical of crypto’s hazard cascade. And with Jackson Hole’s explicit absorption connected labour markets this year, Powell’s framing whitethorn bash much than nudge September probabilities; it could reset however investors deliberation astir the full way of argumentation into 2026.
At property time, the full crypto marketplace headdress stood astatine $3.84 trillion.
English (US) ·