152k-unit order backlog in Malaysia, nearly 60% Saga – Kenanga IB revises 2026 TIV forecast upwards to 800k

Kenanga Investment Bank has changed its 790,000-unit 2026 Malaysia full manufacture measurement (TIV) projection to 800,000 units, Bernama reports. This mirrors the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA)’s latest forecast, which was announced connected July 21.

It said successful a July 22 enactment that it expected a resilient 2nd fractional – contempt tighter EV policies and an 11%-smaller commercialized conveyance market – brought upon by much locally-assembled (CKD) EVs and stronger hybrid conveyance demand. According to the MAA, Malaysia bought 385,353 caller vehicles (+3% year-on-year, oregon YoY), including 26,192 EVs (+106% YoY) and 25,590 hybrids (+43% YoY), successful the archetypal fractional of 2026. Will this beryllium the country’s archetypal twelvemonth successful which much EVs than hybrids are sold?

“Our thesis for 2026 TIV encompasses a inclination of discounts and rebates arsenic a strategy to summation a caput commencement successful capturing marketplace share, the caller open-market-value (OMV) excise work regulation which volition beryllium implemented gradually (delayed to Jan 2027 and perchance beyond) and a pre-tax cost, security and freight (CIF) level terms of RM200,000 for imported EVs implemented successful July 2026,” Kenanga Investment Bank said.

It added that the expanding localisation of Chinese carmakers, sustained request for affordable vehicles, new hire-purchase indebtedness policies, a unchangeable labour marketplace and much caller models should assistance prop up the 2026 TIV.

“In general, the industry’s net visibility is inactive good, backed by a booking backlog of 152,000 units arsenic astatine end-June 2026 which is higher than the mean booking of 140,000 units successful 2025, mostly owed to the summation of the all-new Proton Saga, which contributed 90,000 units to the backlog, though this was constricted by accumulation capacity.

“More than fractional of the backlog is made up of caller models, alluding to the entreaty of caller models to car buyers,” it said, adding that EV makers are moving connected clearing fully-imported (CBU) banal portion transitioning to CKD. Perodua’s existent backlog is reportedly astatine astir 43,000 (all models). Our car-crazy small state erstwhile had a backlog of fractional a cardinal bookings – Malaysia dan kereta, berpisah tiada.

The station 152k-unit bid backlog successful Malaysia, astir 60% Saga – Kenanga IB revises 2026 TIV forecast upwards to 800k appeared archetypal connected Paul Tan's Automotive News.